Wednesday, 8 March 2017

Averting Drought in Somalia: The Missing Factor

        A man looks at the carcasses of animals that died due to the drought. REUTERS/ Faisal Omar, 2016


As a severe drought deepens in Somalia, the risk of famine is looming in the war raged country, with about half the population in need of some form of assistance, according to an assessment by United Nations agencies and humanitarian partners, (UNSOM, 2017). This is not first time Somalia to deal with drought and possibly, if not urgently tackled the consequences will be as the same as the famine in 2011 of human catastrophe where many poor people lost their lives. So if history repeated itself, the many presidents (Federal regional level) have to take responsibilities and at the meant time they should bow their heads with shame.

Of course, there are many factors that contributed this famine to arise, to mention few, most part of the country has not seen the seasonal rain for few years, war and conflict are still pushing press for the disaster, much lessons was not learned from the famine of 2011, so no mechanism was putted in place in order to tackle future droughts and above all, even if there is collective response, locally and internationally, it will be very difficult to reach the suffering people because of lack of proper infrastructure and badly affected areas are not in the hands of the regional states.

All of the above mentioned factors do contribute the disaster but on the other hand, there is critical factor that some scholars argue that the reality is famines are not caused by lack of food and climate change, but rather by perverse economic policies, bad governance and war. They critically analysed and based their arguments so far there is no famine disaster that recorded in where there is an effective democratic government. Most of the disasters are recorded only in some African countries that raged war and there is no effectively governance system.

As Agbor and Moyo (2011) argued, no functioning multiparty democracy can experience famine because democratic institutions—regular free and fair elections, independent courts and legislatures, free press and vibrant civil society—are all effective mechanisms of upholding the basic rights of citizens, including the right to food (“Development as Freedom,” 1999:178). Democracy also offers vulnerable citizens the opportunity to vote out incompetent governments that fail to deliver improved well-being to their constituents. Indeed, as de Waal in “Democratic Political Process and the Fight against Famine” (2000:12) asserts, ‘fully functioning democracies do provide protections against famine, but weak democracies might not’.

Evidence suggests most of the famines recently witnessed in Africa have been largely due to institutional failures resulting from the lack of broad-based accountable governance and much less to market or production failures.  (Agbor and Moyo, 2011). This governance deficiency often manifests itself through imperfect institutions, which either fail to reallocate production surplus away from food-surplus areas to food-deficit ones within the same country, or are incapable of effectively providing food price support to vulnerable citizens.

Although the decline in food availability is almost inevitably witnessed immediately before all major famines, it has not been the main precursor. If met with timely and effective responses, declining food availability can be prevented from degenerating into a famine. Usually, effective anti-corruption mechanisms and efficient public interventions in agricultural support systems and extension services, effectively address food availability declines in the build-up to a famine.

To conclude, while a range of factors, arguably exogenous to government control—such as climate change and international donor response—are crucial in the famine prevention strategy, emphasis must be placed on accountable democratic governance as an effective mechanism for averting famines in Somalia. An anti-famine political contract between citizens and the state, which democracy promotes, can be effective at addressing declining livestock/grain terms of trade shocks that frequently challenge poor households.


Wax ka Qabashadda Abaarta Soomaaliya: Arrimaha ka Maqan



               Odday Soomali ah oo kortaagan Xoolihiisa oo Abaartu ka dishay. Sawir Qadde: Faysal Cumar, REUTERS, 2016



Kasii dartitaanka xaalada abaarta soomaaliya oo u dhaw inay isku bedesho xaalad macluul, in kabadan kalabar ummada Soomaaliyeed ee dalka ku nool, waxa ay u baahanyihiin caawinaad degdeg ah sida uu sheegay xafiiska qaramadda middoobay ee Soomaaliya.(UNSOM, 2017).

Ma ahan markii ugu horeeysay oo Somaaliya xaalad noocaan oo kale ay lasoo deristo, hadii aan hada si degdeg ah wax loogu qaban abaarta, cawaaqib xumo aad u daran ayaa ka dhalaneeyso, sidii tii dhacday sanadkii 2011, xiligaas oo dad fara badan ay u dhinteen biyo, cudur iyo cunta la’aan. Marka hadii ay taariikhdaas oo kale ay so noqoto . wixii ka dhasha waxaa mas’uuliyadeeda qaadaayo kuwa maddaxeyniyaasha u ah umaada, oo xilka u qaaday inay shacabka wax u qabtaan. Hadi ay si degdeg ah wax ugu qabanin, waa inay foorariyaan madaxooda ayagoo duleysan.

Dabcan, waxaa jira arima badan oo isbiirsaday taas oo keentay macluusha, waxyar hadaan ka sheego arimahas waxaa kamid ah dhowr sano oo roob fiican aan ka da’in qeybo kamid ah dalka, dagaal iyo amni daro weli jirta, cashara fiican lagama baranin abaartii dhacday 2011kii, lama sameeynin qaab loogu talagalay in laga hortago abaarta, waxa intaas sii dheer, xitaa hada la joogo hadii  ay iskugu tagaan ummada somaliyeed iyo beesha caalmka waxa adkaanayso in gargaarka uu gaaro dadka aad u tabaalaysan sabatoo ah majiraan wadooyin fududeeya gargaarka iyo amni daro ka jirta meelaha qaar
Arrimaha kor ku xusan waxa ay ka qeeb qaataan dhibaato inay dhacdo, hasayeeshee waxa jira arima kale oo aad u mihiim ah oo dadka wax kaqora abaaraha ay ku doodaan. Waxa ay ku doodaan in keliya cuna la’aan iyo isbedel xaga cimiladda ah aysan abaartu keenin. Laakiinse, siyaasad dhaqaale oo an fiicnayn, maamul xumo iyo dagaal ay yihiin waxa aadka usaameeya inay macluul dhacdo. Cilmibaaris kadib, waxa ay ku doodaan in wadan dowlad si dimoqraadi ah ku dhisan leh, aysan ka dhicin macluul. Blasé meelaha ay macluushu ku badantahy ay tahay keliya qaar kamid ah wadamadda Afrika oo dagaal sokeeya kajira oo aan laheen hab dowlad oo fiican.

Sida Agbor iyo Moyo (2011) qormadooda ay ugu doodeen, majiro wadan leh xisbiyo siyaasadeed oo badan oo hadana dimoqraadi ah inay ka dhacdo macluul, maxaayeelay sistamka jira oo ku saleesan doorasho xur ah oo joogta ah, maxkamado madaxbanaan, sharci dejin fiican, saxaafad xur ah iyo ururo bulshada rayidka ah oo xoogan. Intaas oo isku tagay waxa ay ilaaliyaan xuquudda muwaadiniinta oo ay ku jirto helitaanka cunno ((“Development as Freedom,” 1999:178). Dimuqraadiyada waxa ay siisaa muwaadiniinta fursad ku saleesan coddeeyn inay kubedelaan dowlad jirta oo gudanweysay xilka saran oo ah wax qabada muuqdda. Qoraaga deWaal , qormadiisa “Democratic Political Process and the Fight against Famine” (2000:12) waxa uu ku doodayaa in dowlad buuxdda oo dimiqraadi ah inay awood u leedahay in muwaadiniinteedda ay ka ilaaliso macluul, halka dowlad aan xooganeen aysan ka ilaalin Karin muwaadiniinteeda macluul inay soo wajahdo. Waa tan hada Soomaaliya heesato.

Cilmi baaris kadib, cadeemaha waxa ay sheegayaan in macluul badan ee Afrika kadhacday inay sabab u aheed inaysan jirin hab dowladeed oo kusaleeysan isla xisaabtan. Taas oo saameen kaxoogan oo ka badan mida cunna yerida ku yeelatay abaarta. Maamul wanaag la’aanta waxa ay keentay in dowladaha ay ku fashilmeen in ay sameeyaan qorsha fican oo ah in cuntadda laga qaado meelaha ay kubadantahay oo lagaarsiiyo meelaha ay kuyartahay isla wadanka gudihiisa, ama in ay ka caawiyaan xaga sicirka cuntada dadaka saboolka ah. (Agbor and Moyo, 2011).

Inkastoo cuna yaraanta ladareemi karo kahor inta ay macluusha dhicin, taas ma aysan noqonin mid laga faaideesto. Hadii si degdeg ah loga jawaabo marka cunta yaraan soo daristo waxa laga hortagi karaa macluusha inay dhacdo. Kahortagida musqmaasuqa iyo faragelin guud oo lagu sameeyo beeraha ayadoona beeraleydda lacaawinaayo si ay waxsoosaar fiican u yeeshaan waxa ay kordhinaysaa helitaanka cunta badan oo dadka ku filnaata.


Gunaanad, maamul wanaag, in lala tacaalo isbedelka cimiladda iyo caawinaad ka timaada beesha caalamka waxa ay muhiin u tahay in macluusha laga hortago. Waxaa mudan in howsha ugu muhiimsan laga dhigo sidii loo heli lahaa dowlad dimoqraadi ah oo xoogan, lala xisaabtami karo waxaqabad fiican la imaan karta si wax looga qabto abaarta kusoo noqnoqotay dalka. Sidoo kale, In dowlada iyo shacabka ay iska kaashadaan sameenta awood siyaaasadeysan oo ka dhan ah macluusha, waxa ay noqon kartaa arin fiican oo ka hortagta wax soosaar la’aanta beeraha iyo isbedelka sicirka cuntadda taas oo saameen daran ku yeelata dadka saboolka ah.

Wednesday, 29 October 2014

The Roots of the Political Crisis in Somalia

                      Somali President Hassan (right) and Prime Minister Abdiweli




The current political crises in Somalia between President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud and His Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh is not new and stable government still remains the biggest challenge of the east African country which became example of failed state to other countries.

Without clear definition of the roles of each government institutions has led Somalia to have almost 11 prime ministers and 4 presidents within just 14 years! 

Whenever conflict arises between the president and prime minster, the solution from the parliament is just to sack the prime minister by passing a “no confidence motion” which clearly instead of solving the crises is just fueling it because whenever a prime minister left the office, the president will appoint another one of his choice; who possibly will go through the same consequences. Moreover, such approach towards solving political crises and ignoring to address the real challenge is only wasting time and weakness the government institutions by corrupted means. For instance, when the president wants to sack the prime minister he must get the support of the members of the national assembly by purchasing each members vote so they can pass no confidence motion against the current government. This is contrary to the principles of the democracy and the vision of having democratic elections in 2016, which I believe it’s impossible and there are other obstacles the country is facing in order to achieve such objective within short period.

It is understandable that the constitution which was introduced during the Arta peace process and some modification has been made during the transitional period; which brought the current government into the power is the foundation of the political crises, because it is not clearly defines the authority and the tasks of each government branches.  Furthermore, those who at that time their task was to modify the constitution believed that giving a huge power to the president will likely cause problems and they removed the article in the old constitutions which gave the president a power to sack the prime minster if he realized it as a political solution.

On the other hand, the other critical problem of Somali political system is that a president elected by parliament and the parliament itself is not from the public, in addition to this is a prime minister which is not elected both the parliament and people but they have to back him and give a support. So the governance system is complicated, and this political crisis will continue unless Somalis fix the corrupted system we are having, because the constitution is not clearly defines the role of each institution.

A golden opportunity was missed during the draft of the constitution in 2012. It should be addressed and defined clearly the task of each department whether it is the executive, legislature and judiciary.  

Way forward:

In order to solve these consistent political crises between the president and the prime minster, there are suggestions of strictly following one government system whether it’s presidential system or full parliamentarian system. Each of these has its advantages and drawbacks. The option of presidential system will produce somehow of executive stability, in contrary, it might produce dictatorship.

The parliamentarian system will enhance accountability and is inclusive if all society has representatives in the house. This requires a long time and a proper selection of the representatives.





Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Ebola is Not African Union's Problem




The Ebola outbreaks in West Africa is the world's deadliest to date and World Health Organization (WHO) already declared as international health emergency as almost more than 4,000 people have died for the Ebola virus. most affected countries include Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria.

This epidemic needs local, national and international cooperation to deal with it in order to stop spreading on other regions. the highest representative of African people which is African Union scheduled to have a high level meeting in Tanzania this week to discuss the crisis facing the continent whether its peace and security but one word is glaringly missing from their agenda which is Ebola.

AU Commission Chairperson  Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is chairing the meeting with AU special envoys, mediators, foreign diplomats and representatives from Civil Society organizations.

African governments and most pan-African institutions are making only marginal contributions to the fight against the biggest threat to the continent for years. Solidarity with the people of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone consists mainly of pledges and plans rather than action and cash.
By October 17 the death toll had reached 4,555. The infection rate is climbing while the urgent need for medical personnel, field hospitals, laboratories and protective equipment hugely outstrips the accessible supply.

Its understandable that the affected countries in West Africa are feeling abandoned by the rest of Africa and AU meeting without discussing Ebola will be another nightmare of the devastating situation in West Africa.

It looks like in Africa there is no collective response or strategy to combat one of  the deadliest and fastest epidemic the world has witnessed recently. but every nations is trying to isolate and control the movement of people coming from the affected zones such as imposing restrictions or  banning the flights coming from these zones , which is having a huge impact on the economic activity of the continent.


Up to date only few nations pledged some contribution, also the African Development Bank said it had committed $220 Million, which channeled through World Health Organization, in contrast to this and surprisingly the AU has made "uncommitted pledge" of $700,000. despite perceptions that it would be the largest contributor.

Absolutely it will be lack of responsibility if AU doesn't see Ebola as its problem or ignore it on their agendas while fellow Africans are desperately suffering or dying because of Ebola.










Monday, 20 October 2014

About Bashir Ibrahim

        



Bashir Ibrahim, Holds MM P&DM  from Wits School of Governance, University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. Writes about governance and development issues in Somalia. also his interest include  Democracy, Development, Elections, Human Rights and Politics.